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Stutzer Index : Part II ... a continuation of Part I
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To recap:
- We compare our portfolio to a "benchmark" portfolio, over a long time period.
- We look at the ratio of the value of our $1.00 portfolio to the benchmark : call it R(n), after n years.
- Adopting a utility function, U[x] = - x-g, to measure our pleasure at
having achieved a value x, we calculate U[R(n)] = - R-g
- We look at the expected value of our utility :
E[U] = E[- R-g].
- We investigate this when n is large:
Since R(n) is {(1+p)/(1+b)}n where we let p and b be the two annualized returns (after n years)
then - R-g = - {(1+p)/(1+b)}-ng
This is negative and would tend to zero (as n increases) if p > b.
Note that p > b means our portfolio does better than the benchmark
- To avoid this zero limit, we take a logarithm, like so : log(-E[- R-g])
Note that log(R-g)
= log({(1+p)/(1+b)}-ng)
= - n g log((1+p)/(1+b))
We'd expect this to head to - infinity as n infinity
... if p > b.
- We massage this to avoid the infinite limit and introduce a modified measure of this variable by dividing by (-n), like so :
(-1/n) log[-E[U]] = (-1/n) log(-E[- R-g])
Note that (again using our annualized returns, p and b) this would
look like : g log((1+p)/(1+b))
so we might expect a finite, positive, non-zero value as n infinity.
- We now introduce a variable D(n) defined like so:
D = (-1/n) log(-E[U])
We'd expect this variable D to depend upon the two annualized returns
and g ... and n, of course, but we'll be letting n become infinite.
- In particular, we note that : - e-n D = - E[- R-g]
.. so D is a kind of measure of how rapidly we approach a limit ... a rate of decay to that limit.
- Finally, we choose g so as to maximize the limiting value of D(n)
for n
infinity.
>Why all the negative signs? Isn't -E[-R-g] the same as E[R-g] ?
Yes, but we wanted a standard type of increasing utility function, namely -x-g
Anyway, replacing -E[-R-g] with E[R-g] we have:
Stutzer Index =
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>Mamma mia! Does anybuddy actually use that guy?
How would I know? I just think it's fun, don't you?
>Certainly not!
We saw, above, that the D-values depend upon the portfolio returns and these are random.
There's a neat formula which approximates the annualized returns of a portfolilo
(see this)
and it goes like so:
[1A] (Annualized Return) ≈ (Average Return) - (1/2)(Standard Deviation)2
In #7, above, we obtained this:
(-1/n) log[-E[U]] ≈ g log((1+p)/(1+b))
≈ g (p - q)
... since log((1+p)/(1+b)) = log(1+p) - log(1+q) ≈ p - q because log(1+ x) ≈ x for small x.
Now that p-guy is a random variable (and, unless you're talking about a constant, risk-free return, so is b).
So this repesents a series of excess returns, amplified by a user-selected factor g
which is a measure of your delight in achieving an excess return.
>Delight? You mean your personal utility assignment, right?
Yes. Anyway, we can incorporate volatility into this g (p - q) return by using [1A]:
[1B] Average [g (p - q)] - (1/2)StandardDeviation2[g (p - q)]
Now suppose that b is a constant, risk-free return (a la Sharpe Ratio). Then we'd get:
[1C] g E[p - q] - (1/2) g2 StandardDeviation2[ p]
... since StandardDeviation[cx+d] = c2 StandardDeviation[x] if c and d are constants
This is a simple quadratic in g and has a maximum value at:
[1D] g = E[p - q] / StandardDeviation2[ p]
If we substitute this maximizing value for gamma, we get:
[1E] (-1/n) log[-E[U]] ≈ (1/2)
{ E[p - q] / StandardDeviation }2
= (1/2) {Sharpe Ratio}2
>Mamma mia!
My sentiments exactly.
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